With rapid technological advancements, climate change, and the many social transformations that are unfolding in parallel, the ability to understand the interconnectedness of things and to think in systems is essential. The required shift in perspective aligns closely with the core principles of the Discipline of Anticipation — a field that studies how humans and other systems imagine, prepare for, and respond to the future (see Miller, Poli & Rossel 2018), often referred to as Futures Literacy.
Besides anticipating possible futures, the Discipline of Anticipation seeks to explore and understand the various ways individuals and organisations make sense of the unknown and how they use these anticipations to shape their actions and decisions in the present. In other words, the interest lies in identifying how we are affected by our existing thinking patterns and belief or value systems. Considering anticipation as a human capacity that empowers individuals and organisations to engage with uncertainty in a meaningful way and encourages proactive thinking, it uses foresight to influence the trajectory of events before they fully unfold.
FROM ANTICIPATION TO TRANSFORMATIVE FUTURES
What I see here particularly interesting is what connects anticipation with the idea of transformative futures: In a world where everything is more or less broken — millions of people are living in war zones or otherwise starving and living in poor conditions while the richest population lives in unimaginable abundance yet continuously demanding for more … even more people are touched by unhealthy working conditions, struggling with their mental health or mistreated / abused in a way or another … the extreme weather conditions such as hurricanes, floods and wildfires are getting worse year by year and and global food security is under various threats — envisioning a new future and attaining it is more important than ever.
Yet, despite the increasing prominence of foresight practices, particularly in business and military domains where the primary objectives are to strategise how to win over others and maximize profits, the field has struggled to nurture truly creative, inclusive, and transformative approaches to the future. The prevailing systems of foresight may be undergoing an internal evolution but they remain insufficiently questioned or disrupted to begin with. This imbalance has led to what e.g. Sohail Inayatullah (2008) compellingly describes as a condition where we do not use the future, but rather let the future use us. Or, as Ziauddin Sardar (2010) argues, the often purely instrumental and technocratic focus of foresight risks devouring futures studies by stripping it of its emancipatory and critical potential.
To conclude: When foresight is reduced to a mechanistic tool for strategic planning or risk management, it tends to reinforce prevailing assumptions and potentially exacerbate them. Without a heightened awareness of our embeddedness in the epistemologies and power structures that inform these practices, we risk not only sustaining the status quo but also restrict our capacity to envision alternatives.
TRANSFORMATIVE FUTURES IN PRACTICE
In an extensive study I conducted with Minna Vigren, published in Futures (Ketonen-Oksi & Vigren, 2024), we found that while academic interest in transformation has grown significantly across disciplines, the concept itself remains loosely defined, often interpreted in case-specific or context-dependent ways. This ambiguity was further confirmed through a series of unpublished global expert interviews I carried out with Idil Gaziulusoy between 2023 and 2024. Although the interviewees offered a range of interpretations, no shared or clearly articulated definition of transformation emerged.
Among the many existing frameworks the one I have found the most useful for navigating this conceptual complexity so far has been that of Vogel and O’Brien (2022), particularly their analysis of the varying uses of the prefix trans. Their typology, which we also applied in our work with Vigren, distinguishes between three interrelated but distinct dimensions of transformation:
- Transdisciplinarity, which involves integrating diverse perspectives and knowledge systems to generate novel ways of thinking;
- Transgressiveness, which calls for fundamental shifts that challenge prevailing norms, structural constraints, and power asymmetries; and
- Transcendence, which opens space for engaging with multiple worldviews, values, and belief systems at a meta-level.
Taken together, this framing offers a valuable lens for interpreting the multifaceted nature of transformation and for advancing more coherent, critical, and inclusive approaches to futures thinking.
A useful reference point for understanding the dynamics of futures thinking is the ongoing radical transformation within the U.S. government since President Trump’s second term. This shift has not only deeply impacted American society but also generated significant geopolitical turbulence worldwide. For many — particularly among white populist and conservative groups — these changes were both anticipated and welcomed. For others, however, they have brought about profound anxiety, fear, and distress. Yet, can these developments be seen as examples of transformative futures? While some may argue that they are, I would contend they are not. Observing the world’s most powerful democracy pivot toward authoritarianism in a matter of weeks is certainly eye-opening, but it is not unforeseeable. Nor can the consolidation and exploitation of power within a system, however radical in appearance, be considered genuinely transformative.
To conclude, I would say that we need to be open for many forms, levels, and perspectives on transformations. The importance lies in engaging and empowering everyone in anticipating these transformations and in embracing Futures Literacy for all.
MY TOPIC RELATED EXPERTISE AND FURTHER INTERESTS
Besides my day-time work, I have always been actively engaged with the futurist community and many others working on these or related topics (>> see also ‘ABOUT ME‘), both professionally and out of personal curiosity.
For me, studying transformative futures is a lot more than merely a study field. It is about who I am, part of my identity. In my research, I am interested in :
- Initiating new ways to increase futures consciousness among different actors across sectors (education, business, citizen)
- Developing the awareness and conceptualisation of transformative futures studies
- Studying the approaches and methods to support imagining transformative futures
Topic-wise, the interests often relate to themes such as:
- Transformative futures studies: methods to support imagining alternatives
- Transcendence, transformative processes, futures wisdom
- Transformative learning and foresight: translational agency, ontologies of foresight, different approaches and perspectives of foresight
- Translational agency in foresight: new approaches and methods
- Innovation and foresight ecosystems
- Future trends, phenomena and changes
- The development of organisational futures orientation
- Strategic foresight, leadership
- Systems thinking
In the past, I have asked to give talks about developing futures orientation, the capacity to work with futures, or the multi-perspective approach to futures thinking, the interest in the more transformative approaches is increasing.
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